APEC: Oil War is not the Only Way. An Open Letter to President Bush.

ANALYSIS, Sydney & Melbourne, Australia –

An open letter to visiting President Bush.

Mr Bush is in Sydney Australia at current for the APEC summit, this was written just after his joint speech with Mr Howard today.

Dear Mr President,

You spoke at the APEC Summit with our Prime Minister, Mr Howard.

I agreed with your remarks Sir, about freedom and human rights being critical to the world’s future.

But the Oil War is not the way to spread freedom.

This war is deeply unpopular because the people ‘get’ it was not an honest war.

Another’s freedom is not won by burning your own.

The USA and Australia are Great & Loyal Friends

We as citizens both still believe in and honor our great military and brave soldiers.

All Australians as a majority support the strong US & Australian alliances, with Australia’s great friends and traditional ‘big brother’ the USA.

If you ask Australia to war, Australia will always join the US, not because it is right, but because you are a friend of the Australian people.

History Teaches us

Multi-nation international relations with world powers are far more important.

We are in the Middle East mainly for our dependency on cheap oil. Cheap oil in a future world of Peak Oil & oil shortage.

We need to reduce our reliance on Mid-East Oil, and the best way is to reduce consumption of energy.

There is an Alternative to a March to War

Moderating and scaling back wasteful consumption is far more useful alternative to oil over-consumption.

But can you imagine a world with less oil?

You may have to.

Even if your future, your friend’s and your families future is tied to oil.

The world economy can survive and thrive in a world with far less oil.

Humans are creatures of ideas

Automobiles were just an idea in a long ago age. Now motor cars are ubiquitous.

We humans are persistent with making our ideas real. We Americans are persistent with making our ideas real.

Oil is just a tool, used because we stopped looking for other ideas.

At the time we selected oil as a fuel, and plastic as a tool we did not know the consequences how large our dependence on oil would become.

The French Eurostar today made Paris to London possible in around 2 hours, with 10% of the greenhouse gas emissions of airplanes, on average.

Indeed we are people of ideas.

Our peoples are smart enough to use ideas to solve threats.

So you think your personal future is tied to Oil? Still?

Wars are uncertain events, and a war does not necessarily lead to power for those in the established order.

More likely a new order arises.

The government of France changed after World War II.

The German government changed after World War I and II.

In 1941 the rational business person in full possession of the facts believed Hitler had won, and would likely remain in power.

Instead all throughout the 1950s collaborators with the Hitler government were tried in France and other countries. The trials continued until 1959.

Others were tried by our loyal friends the Israelis.

Rational minds would have backed Petain & Vichy in France, not the great De Gaulle.

All De Gaulle had was ideas and persistence to be the voice of a Free France. At the beginning he was a lonely clear voice. That is how innovation happens.

War rarely leads to safety

Wars are the least predictable way to ensure security for any nation.

No matter how big or strong. In 1900 Britain ruled the World.

Britain believed it would be a quick war.

Millions dead and many more scarred for life, who in turn scarred their families as their mental wounds never healed.

If the US government start wars over Oil Supply then they may not be the dominant power in the world at the end of that war, and all the resulting wars.

The USA has more to lose than it has to gain by war. Unilateralism rarely lasts.

The world has already started re-arming after the USA got a case of itchy trigger finger.

Why War is a Tool of Last Resort

Again, wars are uncertain.

Wars generally are unresolved and lead to more wars.

Wars are infectious when used as a tool of diplomacy or State, even when our country is a unilateral super power on paper.

Russia and China might beg to differ on that point and deserve our respect.

Worst yet, sometimes wars lead to Balkan generational conflicts like those of the former Yugoslavia.

We should never be scared of war, but in the modern world wars are rarely limited.

Large wars should be a tool of defence, not of aggressive foreign policy.

Often small wars of aggression become total wars with lasting effects. Both World Wars started this way in part.

History doesn’t lie.

There’s an alternative to Oil Wars

How about instead of this we temper our consumption, initially?

Whom does it hurt? Change what we consume away from disposable goods.

You said, “we need to reduce our dependency on foreign oil.”

To do so, we need to hasten the movement towards the Creative Age.

We need to leave our modernist-manufacture-more-consume-more thinking behind.

We need to remember we are ideas people first in a digital age where all is possible.

That is the key choice.

Again, Wars are uncertain.

Chances are those in power at the beginning of a war will be so exhausted by the end they will no longer be in power.

Britain was the global power at 1900. A few decades later they were not.

USA was the global power at 2000. A few decades later they may not be.

And the world deserves the USA as a beacon on the hill.

The USA had the courage to work to end the scourge of communism in Europe, when Europe itself did not.

The Europeans I have spoke with, ordinary citizens from many countries in East & West Europe; are frustrated.

Europeans still like America, but they want America as a beacon on the hill again.

France bankrupted its own country fighting for a free America in the 1770s, and they have been our loyal allies in every war ever since.

Sometimes we need to listen to our friends.

America can again become the respected land of the free.

History rarely lies.

Wise counsel would advise to avoid making the mistake of the establishment, that of always assuming the war will favor those in power.

When instead wars favor the unknowns and stir up forces of various kinds that invariably leads to overthrows of the status quo.

Sometimes for good, and more often for bad.

Stalin came to power after the Bolshevik Revolution. The French Terror of the 1790s occurred after the 1789 revolution. Hitler assumed power as a result of the World War I reparations and global economic conditions.

The United States of America itself is a beacon of light on the hill in these dark times. Or it should be.

We dare not give up being a beacon of light for being a voice of fear.

We create the world

History may be unpredictable, but is often a monotonously accurate predictor of the future.

I hope this future that you have created does us no harm.

But I suspect that the war-march and global arms race that preceded previous global conflicts has started.

There is an alternative sir

People are bright. We need to trust the brightest of our own people.

We need the best and brightest of our young Americans to solve these problems.

But in a global world we need France, we need Russia, we need China, Germany and broader Europe, and of course, Australia.

We cannot afford to ignore ideas.

Ideas don’t create global warming but they can stop it.

Ideas don’t create wars but they can stop them.

Ideas create democracies, but mistakes can stop ideas.

Ideas can repair mistakes we all make.

Thank you for your time sir.

Respectfully yours,

Christopher Hire

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Speaker. Author. Editor-In-Chief. Executive Director of Innovation, 2thinknow.

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