How our Innovation Models have predicted unforeseen events…


Icon Innovation ProgramInnovation Models predict the timing of trends and conditions in cities & regions worldwide. Leading to state change and innovation.

Since developing the first models in 2006 2thinknow have had some incredible results that can be proven:

Trends.

> Foresaw a “September 2008 Shock Event” in October 2007 Journal

> Predicted the Australian Election within a Margin of 1% in same journal

> In December 2007 called a deep recession, possibly a depression in the US and then spreading.

> Accurately stated that the Australian Stock Market would peak & fall below a floor of 4500 points – “as a moderately risk-verse person I would sell shares now”

> Described US Bank Nationalisation in February 2008, whilst mainstream business analysts were promoting the banks as investments.

Cities & Government.

> Accurately noted the importance of “regulation” and consequences of under-regulation.

> Placed the Vienna & Paris economy as the number 1 & 2 city in Europe in April 2007 (France is number one European economy now according to The Economist Magazine in May 2009).

> Ranked London’s reliance on Financial Services as a concern and thus ranked London low in Cities Index 2007/08.

Some Questions.

How? These very specific predictions were done with limited allocated resources. They were achieved by combining our Change Trend & City Analysis Models and Research Insights.

Who else? At the same time we made these predictions the OECD, UN, World Bank, IMF, major banks were all wrong. Some notable bears had predicted a fall, but no one (to our knowledge) made a specific date prediction.

What’s needed? Access to first-hand evidence, sometimes anecdotal in-person, some online. Accurate (non-skewed) data [Much statistical data is politicised]. Often this is combined with thought-leadership pieces in journals, websites & books, and leading scholarship.

Why 2thinknow? The difference is our unique modelling tools combined with seeking non-linear lead indicators in an evidence-based approach.

When will we make more predictions? For Cities: The Innovation Cities Index predicts the economic & social performance of cities in the mid-term (around 2013-2017), and is to be released from July 28th onwards.

For Trends: each set of predictions requires a large time investment (thus cost) and access to accurate data as well as lead indicators. These factors are not available at current funding levels, but would represent a strategic investment opportunity.

Lead Indicators give an obvious strategic time advantage versus Rear-Window Indicators.

Are we always right? No. We are able to predict change by reading lead indicators. These must be present to make a prediction. However, it is worth examining how consistently wrong traditional linear analysts (almost always) are.

The bottom line? Many ‘unforeseen’ events can be predicted earlier in the cycle than currently possible, by using 2thinknow Innovation Models. These may be superior than analysis done using linear methods, for identifying future paradigm shifts.